Expectancy Lab - Updated 2026-07-31
Model expectancy, profit factor, costs, and the effect of one large loss so the win-rate number stops doing all the talking.
Expectancy and Trade Simulator
Model expectancy, profit factor, costs, and the effect of one large loss so the win-rate number stops doing all the talking.
A setup that wins $20 nine times and loses $300 once has a 90% win rate, but the ten-trade cycle is still negative before costs.
The useful question is not whether one metric looks good. It is whether the full risk, reward, cost, timing, and recovery math still make sense when the trade behaves badly.
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